Covid-19 trajectories: Monitoring pandemic in the worldwide context
Version 1

Background: Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with partly marked differences between regions and countries. They are not completely understood, but presumably, provide one clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until exit strategies to its eradication become available. Method: We provide a monitoring tool available at It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories. They visualize transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Results: Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. Basic spread of the disease associates with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days where complete lock down measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific dynamics of recovery and death rates. Conclusions: The results presented refer to the pandemic state in May 2020 and can serve as working instruction for timely monitoring using the interactive monitoring tool as a sort of seismometer for the evaluation of the state of epidemic, e.g., the possible effect of measures taken in both, lock-down and lock-up directions. Comparison of trajectories between countries and regions will support developing hypotheses and models to better understand regional differences of dynamics of Covid-19.


Filename: Covid viewer medRxiv.pdf 

Format: PDF document

Size: 982 KB

help Creators and Submitter

Views: 1267   Downloads: 1

Created: 10th Jun 2020 at 08:39

Last updated: 10th Jun 2020 at 08:39

Last used: 8th Dec 2022 at 18:32

help Attributions


Version History

Version 1 Created 10th Jun 2020 at 08:39 by Henry Löffler-Wirth

No revision comments

Powered by
Copyright © 2008 - 2021 The University of Manchester and HITS gGmbH
Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig

By continuing to use this site you agree to the use of cookies