Covid-19 Transmission Trajectories-Monitoring the Pandemic in the Worldwide Context.

Abstract:

The Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with marked differences between regions and countries. These are not completely understood, but presumably, provide a clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until strategies leading to its eradication become available. We describe an iteractive monitoring tool available in the internet. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories that visualize the transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and in this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. The basic spread of the disease is associated with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days, whereas 'complete lock down' measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific recovery and death rate dynamics. The results presented refer to the pandemic state in May to July 2020 and can serve as 'working instruction' for timely monitoring using the interactive monitoring tool as a sort of 'seismometer' for the evaluation of the state of epidemic, e.g., the possible effect of measures taken in both, lock-down and lock-up directions. Comparison of trajectories between countries and regions will support developing hypotheses and models to better understand regional differences of dynamics of Covid-19.

PubMed ID: 32698418

Projects: Task Force COVID-19 Leipzig

Publication type: Journal article

Journal: Viruses

Human Diseases: Covid-19

Citation: Viruses. 2020 Jul 20;12(7). pii: v12070777. doi: 10.3390/v12070777.

Date Published: 20th Jul 2020

Registered Mode: by PubMed ID

Authors: H. Loeffler-Wirth, M. Schmidt, H. Binder

Help
Activity

Views: 2366

Created: 27th Jul 2020 at 10:23

Last updated: 7th Dec 2021 at 17:58

help Tags

This item has not yet been tagged.

help Attributions

None

Related items

Powered by
(v.1.13.0-master)
Copyright © 2008 - 2021 The University of Manchester and HITS gGmbH
Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig

By continuing to use this site you agree to the use of cookies